[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 9 09:50:55 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/2N 1611UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate with numerous C-class
flares produced by regions 375 and 380. An M4 level flare originating
from region 380 occurred at 1605UT. This could not be optically
correlated, but the impulsive nature of the event and its origin
near the east limb means it is unlikely to be geoeffective. Available
LASCO imagery has revealed no significant mass ejection from
events in the early part of the UT day. Regions 375 and 380 are
both capable of further C- to M-class activity, with the possibility
of an isolated X-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 20 3344 3433
Darwin 18 3334 3433
Townsville 16 3334 3333
Learmonth 22 2344 3533
Canberra 18 3343 3433
Hobart 17 2443 3333
Casey(Ant) 28 4443 5444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JUN :
Townsville 52 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 98 (Minor storm)
Canberra 190 (Severe storm)
Hobart 198 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 24 4444 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 25 Active
10 Jun 20 Unsettled to active
11 Jun 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed
over the UT day with isolated minor to major storm periods at
high latitudes. Solar wind speed reached a peak value around
850 km/s in the middle part of the UT day and has since declined
steadily to a present value around 650 km/s. Bz polarity fluctuations
have been moderate around an overall neutral average. Fluctuations
declined significantly after 12UT. Expect continued unsettled
to active conditions today with high speed coronal hole wind
stream induced disturbance gradually declining over the next
few days.
A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1057UT on 08 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
11 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed equatorial and N
Aus region. Extended periods of disturbance observed at high
latitudes. HF conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high
latitudes over next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of localised disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 70 near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 75 near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 80 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate overnight depressions observed equatorial and
N Aus regions. Extensive and occasionally intense sporadic-E
and spread-F conditions observed NZ/S Ocean/Antarctic regions.
Expect similar localised conditions today. Degraded HF conditions
expected next few days due to further coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 635 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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