[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind paramters suggest the Earth is presently 
under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 11 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   2344 4435
      Darwin              20   2344 4435
      Townsville          23   2345 4345
      Learmonth           23   3344 4445
      Canberra            23   23-5 4435
      Hobart              25   23-5 4445
      Casey(Ant)          10   3223 232-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2222 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul    18    Unsettled with possible active and isolated minor 
                storm periods. 
13 Jul    15    Unsettled to active 
14 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 11 July and 
is current for interval 11-12 July. Solar wind parameters suggest 
the Earth is presently under the influence of a coronal hole 
wind stream, resulting in active to minor storm levels of geomagnetic 
activity. Mostly unsettled to active levels with possible minor 
storm periods are expected for 12 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 12 July due to mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
13 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 11 July 
and is current for interval 11-12 July. Slightly degraded HF 
conditions are possible at times for mid to high latitudes (southern 
Aus/NZ region) for 12 July. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:   12.4 p/cc  Temp:    29500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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