[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.6    1412UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: M-class flare activity has been observed from region 
397, with further isolated M-class flaring possible from solar 
regions 397 and 400. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible 
in SEC SXI imagery. The wind stream from this hole is expected 
from around 11 july. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1122 3112
      Darwin               7   2122 3123
      Townsville           4   1122 2112
      Learmonth            4   1122 2112
      Canberra             5   0122 3111
      Hobart               5   0122 3111
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 210-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2212 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active and isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
12 Jul    18    Unsettled with possible active and isolated minor 
                storm periods. 
13 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 8 July and 
is current for interval 10-11 July. Mostly unsettled to active 
levels are expected for 11-12 July due to an anticipated coronal 
hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 11-12 July due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
12 Jul    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
13 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions possible at times for 
mid to high latitudes (southern Aus/NZ region) for 11-12 July. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    60100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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