[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind declined to 320km/sec. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward toward 
end of the UT day. In yesterdays report I commented on a south-polar 
coronal hole, which was broad, but extent towards the solar equator 
was limited. After viewing the latest SOHO EIT 284 imagery this 
morning it appears that this hole is in fact part of a larger 
hole, with a new broad arm now visible stretching eastward along 
the solar equator, across the eastern solar hemisphere. This 
broad equatorial arm is expected to be reasonably geoffective, 
around 22-24 Jan. The part of the coronal hole now at solar central 
meridian is expected to produce mild activity around 19 Jan. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2223
      Darwin               5   2212 1222
      Townsville           3   1011 2123
      Learmonth            5   2122 2122
      Canberra             3   1012 2113
      Hobart               3   1012 2113
      Casey(Ant)          13   33-- 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3222 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jan    12    Unsettled 
19 Jan    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A coronal hole now at the centre of the solar disk is 
expected to produce mild affects around 19-20 Jan. An eastward 
arm of this coronal hole is expected to produce a stronger period 
of activity 22-24 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good conditions expected today. Mild degradation expected 
19-20 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   145    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Jan   145    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Jan   145    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. Mild degradation 
expected 19-20 Jan, southern region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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