[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: A south polar coronal hole is nearing solar central 
meridian. This hole is broad, however the extent toward the solar 
equator is limited. Solar wind parameters near nominal. Mild 
elevation in solar wind speed expected 19-20 Jan. Possibility 
of isolated low level M-class flare activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 2213
      Darwin               8   3221 ----
      Townsville          10   4322 2214
      Learmonth            4   2112 2112
      Canberra            15   3--- ----
      Hobart              11   32-- ----
      Casey(Ant)          13   4--- 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JAN : 
      Townsville          39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3333 3321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest that active periods 
can be possible over the next 3 days. However, the coronal hole 
responsible for this distrubed interval (16-18 Jan) appears to 
have closed, with solar wind speed showing no sign of increase. 
A coronal hole currently nearing the centre of the solar disk 
is expected to produce mild affects around 19-20 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan   115    depressed 10% south Aus/enhanced 10-20% north Aus. 
17 Jan   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Jan   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. Mild depression 
(10-15%) after local dawn this morning souther Aus/NZ region. 
Mild southern region depression not expected to persist, recovering 
as day progresses. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060