[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Feb             28 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity  was very low today. Just a 
few B-class  flares were  observed, the largest being a 
B7.8 at 0946UT from region 0290(N18W60). The solar wind 
speed  remained around  400 km/s in the early hours and 
then rose to approximately  470 km/s for about 12 hours 
between 0600UT and 1800UT.  The solar  wind  speed then 
decreased  to  approximately  420 km/s.  At the time of 
writing this report the solar wind speed was again rising
and was approximately 440 km/s. The north-south component 
of the inter-planetary  magnetic field remained close to 
the normal value during  the early hours and then showed 
minor  to moderate  fluctuations between north and south 
directions. All these variations in the solar wind speed 
and Bz seem  to be  the result of the favourably located 
coronal  hole on the  disk.  This coronal hole activity 
is expected to continue for approximately two more days. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 276 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 28 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 26 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2234 3333
      Darwin              14   2234 3333
      Townsville          13   1234 3333
      Learmonth           12   1224 3334
      Canberra            14   3234 3323
      Hobart              10   1234 2223
      Casey(Ant)          13   2-43 223-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2112 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Feb    14    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
28 Feb    12    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
01 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT:  Slight rise in  geo-magnetic  activity may be
expected on 27 and 28 February due to the continuing coronal 
hole activity.  The geo-magnetic activity  is expected to 
remain mostly at unsettled level with possibility of isolated 
active periods during this period of time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be 
expected at mid and high latitudes during the next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Feb    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with short
      periods of minor depressoins.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with short periods
      of minor depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Feb   100    near predicted monthly values 
28 Feb   100    near predicted monthly values 
01 Mar   105    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected remain mostly normal 
in Australian/NZ regions during the next two days. However, 
short periods of minor depressions in MUFs may be observed 
in the Southern Australian/NZ regions during this period of 
time. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    77800 K  
Bz:   0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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