[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: SOHO EIT EUV 195 imagery shows a brightening on south-east 
limb suggesting a new region is rotataing onto the solar disk. 
Small to medium size coronal hole visible on disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 2112
      Darwin               5   2222 2112
      Townsville           4   1122 2102
      Learmonth            4   2121 1112
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               3   1121 2102
      Casey(Ant)          10   3-42 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2103 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
27 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
28 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent pattern around 26 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
27 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 486 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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