[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: A C8.7 level flare originating from solar region 280 
occurred at 0151UT. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio 
sweep and CME. Although the CME was narrow, its direction of 
travel and the position of the originating region suggest a possible 
weak shock arrival late 14 to early 15 Feb. Elevated solar wind 
speed effects due to a coronal hole are expected 15 to 19 Feb. 
Recurrence suggests solar wind speeds of around 600km/sec during 
this interval. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 266 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 14 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2223 2423
      Darwin              11   2223 2423
      Townsville          10   1223 2423
      Learmonth           15   2223 2533
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              11   2223 2423
      Casey(Ant)          18   34-4 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   4332 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Isolated periods of unsettled to active conditions observed 
at high latitudes as previous coronal hole effects continue to 
decline. The interplanetary magnetic field exhibited significant 
fluctuations about neutral over the first half of the UT day, 
followed by a steady southward trend. Active conditions expected 
again after Feb 15 due to another coronal hole moving into geoeffective 
location. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed at some mid-latitude 
stations during local day, recovering to normal overnight. Isolated 
periods of disturbance at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Ionospheric depressions observed in E. Aus region during 
local day, recovering overnight. Mild depressions may be experienced 
again today at mid latitudes after local dawn. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    64300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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