[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: The sun had another quiet day. A coronal hole is visible 
in the Sun's eastern hemisphere in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. 27 day 
recurrent patterns suggest that the high speed stream from this 
hole will encompass the Earth 15-19 Feb. Recurrence suggests 
moderately elevated solar wind speeds of around 600km/sec during 
this interval. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 2323
      Darwin               9   3222 2323
      Townsville           8   2222 2323
      Learmonth            9   3322 2313
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              11   2233 3323
      Casey(Ant)          17   3444 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 FEB : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   3443 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     6    Quiet 
13 Feb     6    Quiet 
14 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected next 3 days. 
A coronal hole is expected to elevate geomagnetic activity to 
unsettled to active levels 15-19 Feb. Recurrent patterns in Ap 
are strongest for 16 and 19 Feb. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair-Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions observed at some sites after 
local dawn this morning. Depressions not expected to persist. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    86900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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