[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: Isolated M class activity expected. Solar wind speed 
remains moderately elevated at 500km/sec due to coronal hole 
effects, though now showing some decline. Bz again fluctauting 
+/-5nT around neutral. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 3233
      Darwin              11   3322 3233
      Townsville          10   3222 3233
      Learmonth           11   3322 3232
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              13   3222 4333
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--4 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             16   2333 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT:Moderate degradation expected at mid to high
latitudes today, then improving.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Feb   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb    55    depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Feb   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 7 February 
and is current for interval 8 February only. Moderate depression 
observed after local dawn this morning. Cause of this depression 
is unclear, but maybe associated with sustained elevated solar 
wind conditions due to a coronal hole. Solar wind speed is showing 
a declining trend so depressions not expected to extend beyond 
today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   208000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060