[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0349UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: Solar region 278 in the north-east solar quadrant produced 
the M1 event. The event had an unusual xray flare profile but 
no mass ejection or radio sweep was observed. A mass ejection 
was observed starting at around 06UT, assumed to be a behind 
the limb event. Isolated M class activity expected. Solar wind 
speed remains moderately elevated at 500km/sec due to coronal 
hole effects. Bz fluctauting +/-5nT around neutral. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2233 3333
      Darwin              11   2232 3333
      Townsville          11   2232 3333
      Learmonth           12   2233 3333
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              11   2232 3332
      Casey(Ant)          27   --54 42--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3322 4422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    12    Unsettled 
08 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Feb   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Feb   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 576 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   196000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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