[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
02/0035UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Active to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 02 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      40   5464 4544
      Darwin              43   5464 4554
      Townsville          30   4454 4445
      Learmonth           49   5554 5655
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              43   4464 5553
      Casey(Ant)          38   5563 3533
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 FEB : 
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             117   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3212 2254     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
04 Feb    12    Unsettled 
05 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Increased geomagnetic activity persisted into 2 February 
following the impact of a CME on 1 February, however, activity 
is expected to slowly decline into 3 February. Mildy elevated 
geomagnetic activity is again expected for February 5 due to 
the anticipated arrival of a high speed coronal hole solar wind 
stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Poor-normal    Normal-poor    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal   
04 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions have been significantly degraded following 
recent enhanced geomagnetic activity, with depressions greater 
than 30% observed. Degraded HF conditions are again possible 
at times for 3 February. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted to depressed 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb    70    Depressed 15-30% at times. 
04 Feb   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions have been significantly degraded following 
recent enhanced geomagnetic activity, with depressions greater 
than 30% observed. Degraded HF conditions are again possible 
at times for 3 February. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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