[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3334 3322
      Darwin              15   3334 3323
      Townsville          14   2334 3323
      Learmonth           15   2234 4322
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              18   3335 3321
      Casey(Ant)          26   3455 431-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             26   5444 4542     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    15    Unsettled with active to minor storm periods 
                late in the UT day. 
02 Feb    25    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                levels. 
03 Feb    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A halo CME observed on 30 January is expected to impact 
the Earth late in the UT day of 1 February. Active to minor storm 
levels are expected to follow and persist into 2 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Poor-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were significantly degraded at times for 
31 January for low-mid latitudes due to recent elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. Degraded HF conditions are again expected for 
2 Feb as the result of further anticipated increased geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      5-15% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15% 
                at times. 
02 Feb    70    Depressed 15-30% at times. 
03 Feb   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were significantly degraded at times for 
31 January for northern regions due to recent elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. Degraded HF conditions are again expected for 
2 Feb as the result of further anticipated increased geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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