[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 23 10:26:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Low to mid C-level flare activity was observed today
from regions 528 and 530. Regions 525 and 528 maintain the potential
for isolated M-class activity, but have been mostly quiet on
this rotation. The geoeffectively positioned coronal hole has
an equatorial meridional extension which will continue to affect
solar wind velocities for a few days yet, but geomagnetic disturbance
should subside after Dec 23.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 3334 2332
Darwin 9 2223 232-
Townsville 12 3233 2332
Learmonth 20 3234 3533
Culgoora 13 3333 2332
Canberra 17 3344 2332
Hobart 17 3344 332-
Casey(Ant) 22 4--4 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 DEC :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 92 (Minor storm)
Hobart 70 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21 4344 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were
observed today. Solar wind velocity remains elevated above 600
km/s. IMF Bz fluctuations have increased in amplitude, but Bz
polarity has remained mostly northward, limiting geomagnetic
disturbance. There was a brief period of southward Bz bias in
the first half of the UT day, preceding isolated periods of minor
to major storm conditions at high latitudes only. Solar wind
velocities are likely to remain elevated for a few more days,
but geomagnetic disturbance should decline from unsettled to
active on day one, to quiet to unsettled on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect generally improving HF conditions for the next
three days, with isolated periods of disturbance likely at high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night and after
local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night and after
local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over
the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 100 20 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed in most regions,
despite continuing elevated solar wind velocities. Periods of
sporadic-E were observed in S Aus/NZ region, and spread-F conditions
observed in Antarctic region. The present coronal hole wind stream is
likely to maintain elevated solar wind velocities for a few more
days, but geomagnetic disturbance will continue to decline, resulting
in continuing good HF propagation conditions. Periods of disturbance
are likely at high latitudes only for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 571 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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