[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 22 10:50:11 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Only C-class flare activity was observed today, mostly
from region 525. Regions 525 and 528 have M-class flare capability.
Elevated solar wind parameters from the "L" shaped coronal hole
on the visible solar disk commenced early in the UT day 20 Dec
and should persist for 21-22 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 4333 3333
Darwin 10 3222 3322
Townsville 15 3333 3333
Learmonth 20 4333 3443
Culgoora 15 3342 3333
Canberra 20 4343 3434
Hobart 18 4343 333-
Casey(Ant) 29 5--- 3444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Culgoora 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 69 (Active)
Hobart 70 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 16 1224 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 16 active
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ramped up consistently over the UT
day and is above 600 km/s at the time of report issue. North-south
component of the IMF has fluctuated mildly, but maintained an
overall northward bias. Geomagenetic activity has been at mostly
unsettled levels at low to mid latitudes with isolated storm
periods observed at high latitudes. Coronal hole wind stream
effects are expected to persist for the next 24 hours, then gradually
decline over the following days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed at low to mid latitudes,
recovering after local dawn today. Extended periods of disturbance
at high latitudes due to geomagnetic disturbance from high speed
coronal hole wind stream. Coronal hole wind stream effects are
expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Slightly below predicted values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Slightly below predicted values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 50 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed most regions, recovering
after local dawn today. Night time equatorial spread-F observed.
Periods of intense sporadic-E observed S Aus/NZ region. Expect
further periods of disturbance today due to continuing coronal
hole wind stream effects. HF conditions should gradually improve
after day two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 98900 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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