[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 03

Tue Dec 9 10:37:31 EST 2003

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: US ACE solar wind speed data continued to rise from 
450 to 600km/sec over the UT day. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field remained mildly southward over 
the UT day. Elevated solar wind speeds and southward IMF conditions 
expected to persist over next 5-7 days. The Sun has been flare 
quiet over the past 24 hours. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 501 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 9 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      34   3444 5553
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          30   2444 5453
      Learmonth           38   3335 6553
      Culgoora            24   2344 5--3
      Canberra            30   2454 5443
      Hobart              36   2455 5543
      Casey(Ant)          31   4544 4---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             15   2233 3443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec    25    Active to minor storm 
10 Dec    25    Active to minor storm 
11 Dec    25    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December 
and is current for interval 6-9 December. Recurrence suggests 
that an extended period of active conditions with minor storm 
periods can be expected until 15 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
10 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
11 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes 
over coming days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Dec    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec    10    depressed 10 to 20%
10 Dec    40    depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Dec    40    depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 3 December 
and is current for interval 7-9 December. An extended period 
of lower than normal MUFs may be experienced for asouthern Aus/NZ 
region up to around 15 Dec. In addition northern Aus region MUFs 
show mild depressions this morning of 10-15% and communicators 
in this region should use a Tindex of 30. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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