[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 8 10:06:24 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: US ACE solar wind speed data gradually rose over the
UT day from 400 to 450km/sec. A small discontinuity was observed
in solar wind parameters around 1340UT. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase further in coming days due to a high speed wind stream
from a large solar coronal hole. Recurrence suggests that solar
wind speed can be expected to remain elevated for the next 7
days.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1341UT
on 07 Dec.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 501 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 9 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 2122 4333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 10 1112 4333
Learmonth 12 2222 4334
Culgoora 8 1111 3333
Canberra 10 2111 4333
Hobart 9 2221 3333
Casey(Ant) 15 3-33 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 DEC :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22 4444 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
09 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
10 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 6-9 December. Recurrence suggests
that an extended period of active conditions with minor storm
periods can be expected 08-15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Fair Fair-poor
09 Dec Normal Fair Fair-poor
10 Dec Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes
over coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 15% after local danw.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Blanketing sporadic E observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20% (southern Aus/NZ region)
08 Dec 80 near predicted monthly values (northern Aus region)
09 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on 5 December
and is current for interval 6-8 December. An extended period
of lower than normal MUFs may be experienced for asouthern Aus/NZ
region up to around 15 Dec. Northern Aus region MUFs expected
to remain near to 15% above normal, communicators within this
region should use a Tindex of around 80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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