[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 6 10:22:59 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: US ACE satellite solar wind parameters showed a discontinuity
at around 0200UT on 05 Dec. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, became strongly southward (20nT)
after this dicontinuity, and remained southward until 12 UT. The solar
wind magnetic vector swung from a solar-toward to a solar-away
orientation also after the discontnuity. This indicates that the Earth
has entered the coronal hole wind stream earlier than expected. This may
mean that the coronal hole has a faster than 27 day period. However,
the strong southward IMF is unusual for a coronal hole wind stream and
speculatively may be related to "turbulence" at the wind stream boundary
or due to the recently reported halo-cme from over two days ago. Assuming
we have entered a coronal hole wind stream, recurrence suggests that Bz
will assume a mildly southward orientation over coming days with a graudal
trend in increasing solar wind speed. These conditions are most
likely 08-15 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 37 3555 5444
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 28 3544 4---
Learmonth 31 3445 5444
Culgoora 23 2444 4---
Canberra 33 3445 5---
Hobart 43 3465 5---
Casey(Ant) 38 4654 5434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 DEC :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 42
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 9 2123 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 18 Unsettled to active
07 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
08 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 6-9 December. A gradual increase
in activity is expected over coming days. In particular recurrence
suggests that an extended period of active conditions with minor
storm periods can be expected from 08 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
08 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Unexpected geomagnetic activity degraded mid to high
latitude HF conditions. Degraded conditions are likely at mid
to high latitudes over coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 35 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 7-9 December. Unexpected geomagnetic
activity overnight. Depressed MUFs observed after local dawn.
An extended period of lower than normal MUFs may be experienced
for asouthern Aus/NZ region up to around 15 Dec. Northern Aus
region MUFs expected to remain near to 15% above normal, communicators
within this region should use a Tindex of around 80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 42000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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