[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 5 09:53:39 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: A full-halo (earth directed) coronal mass ejection has
been reported with the long duration xray enhancement event from
region 508 on 02 Dec at around 1308UT. However, this regions
far western location at the time of the event is expected to
reduce the geoeffectiveness of the event. Also, it is now +48
hours since the time of the event and no shock has yet arrived,
suggesting a slow mass ejection. Thus, a weak shock in the solar
wind is expected in the next 24 hours. Solar wind conditions
nominal over past 24 hours. A thin broad coronal hole is visible
across the solar disk is expected to produce a evelavted
solar wind conditions 06-15 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1123
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 3 1111 1122
Learmonth 9 ---- -133
Culgoora 3 1011 1123
Canberra 3 1111 1123
Hobart 4 1121 1122
Casey(Ant) 13 33-3 2332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 DEC :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 1222 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 12 Unsettled
06 Dec 18 Unsettled to active
07 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 6-9 December. A gradual increase
in activity is expected over coming days. In particular recurrence
suggests that an extended period of active conditions with minor
storm periods can be expected from 08 Dec. Active conditions may extend
up to 15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : Began at 1505UT 02/12, Ended at 2135UT 03/12
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected until 06 Nov, afterwhich
degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes due to
anticapted entry of the Earth into a coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec 70 Initially enhanced 15% then becoming depressed
15%
07 Dec 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 7-9 December. Depressed MUFs may
be experienced after 06/07 Dec in southern region Aus/NZ region
due to anticpated Earth entry into a coronal hole wind stream.
A period of extended lower than normal MUFs may be experienced
for southern Aus/NZ region up to around 15 Dec. Northern Aus
region MUFs expected to remain near to 15% above normal, communicators
within this region should use a Tindex of around 80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 49500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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