[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain low. There are 
no regions on the visible disk having a significant probability 
of greater than C-class flare production. Limb brightening is 
still evident on the East limb. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3332 2222
      Darwin               9   2332 2223
      Townsville           9   3322 2223
      Learmonth            8   3222 2222
      Canberra            11   3333 2221
      Hobart               9   2333 2211
      Casey(Ant)          12   4332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 AUG : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           148   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             164   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   1224 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    12    Unsettled 
01 Sep    12    Unsettled 
02 Sep    25    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly unsettled levels 
today despite the elevated solar wind parameters. Solar wind 
speed has declined steadily over the UT day but remains elevated 
at around 500 km/s at the time of report issue. Interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz has maintained a slight southward bias over 
the UT day. An equatorial coronal hole is now past central solar 
meridian, and further high speed wind stream effects can be anticipated 
after Sep-01. This recurrent feature has produced significant 
geomagnetic activity on previous rotations. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Minor depressions observed overnight and around local 
dawn at low latitudes. Expect degraded HF conditions after Sep-01 
in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with extended periods of
      disturbance during local night. 


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
02 Sep    60    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Extended periods of night time spread-F observed S. Aus and Antarctic 
regions. Expect degraded HF conditions after Sep-01 in association 
with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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