[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Intense Ca XV emission on the East limb was observed 
again today by the Sacramento Peak Observatory, and east limb 
brightening has been observed in LASCO EIT95 imagery. The region 
of origin is most likely region 449, which is probably the return 
of region 424. This region was reasonably active on its previous 
rotation. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   1223 3253
      Darwin              18   -22- 335-
      Townsville           9   1112 3243
      Learmonth           15   2123 3352
      Canberra            10   0213 3242
      Hobart              11   1223 3243
      Casey(Ant)          17   3-33 2253
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3444 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to over 600 km/s during the 
second half of the UT day. North-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has maintained a mild to moderate southward bias 
over the UT day. These factors combined to produce an isolated 
minor storm period around 19UT. Solar wind speed remains elevated 
at the time of report issue and further minor storm periods are 
possible today at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10-20% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Extended periods of disturbance during local night.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
31 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overnight absorption observed at sub-Antarctic and some 
Antarctic stations. Extended periods of night time spread-F observed 
S. Aus and Antarctic regions. Expect generally good HF conditions 
today with a chance of isolated periods of degradation in association 
with increased geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    94800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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