[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 23 09:45:36 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
436(N07E03) produced a C1.9 flare at 0350UT. The solar
wind stream remains strong due to the coronal hole
effect. The solar wind speed remained between 750 and
850 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +10nT and -10nT (approx.) throughout the UT day.
Solar region 436 is the largest region on the disk and is
continuing to grow in size and magnetic complexity. Region
436 has potential for C-class flare and also has a slight
chance of producing isolated low M-class flare. Region
440(S07W06) also has potential to produce C-class flare.
The solar wind stream is expected to remain strengthened
due to the coronal hole effect during the next two to
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 32 4455 5333
Darwin 40 6555 433-
Townsville 29 4445 5333
Learmonth 36 4455 5444
Canberra 32 4455 5334
Hobart 32 4455 5333
Casey(Ant) 26 4543 4343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 AUG :
Townsville 47 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 106 (Major storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 53 4575 6555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 25 Mostly active. Isolated minor storm possible.
24 Aug 25 Mostly active. Isolated minor storm possible.
25 Aug 20 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 21
August and is current for interval 21-23 August. The
rise in geomagnetic activity due to the coronal hole
effect continued today. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain enhanced to 'mostly active with
possibility of isolated periods of minor storm' during
the next two days and decline to 'mostly unsettled to
active' level on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
25 Aug Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may be expected at mid and
high latitudes during the next two days. Minor degradations
are also possible at low latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
24 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
25 Aug 62 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
21 August and is current for interval 21-23 August. Minor
to mild depressions are possible in Southern Australian/NZ
reagions during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 321000 K
Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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