[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 22 09:53:24 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. A few B-class
and low C-class flares were observed, the largest being a
C4.9 from region 431 (S10W90). The solar wind stream was
significantly strengthened today due to a slightly earlier
than expected start of the predicted coronal hole effect.
The solar wind speed gradually increased from 450 to 750 km/s
(approx.) during the UT day. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +12nT
and -12nT (approx.) throughout the UT day. Strengthening of
solar wind stream and southward fluctuations in Bz resulted
in a rise in geomagnetic activity to minor storm level with
a few stations recording even a major storm. Solar region
436(N07E17) has potential to produce C-class flares. A
glancing effect of a partial halo CME from the north-east
limb observed on 19 August , may further strengthen the
solar wind stream on 22 August. The solar wind stream is
expected to remain strengthened due to the coronal hole
effect during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Unsettled to minor storm.
Isolated short periods of major storm.
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 33 4454 4455
Darwin 48 5456 4466
Townsville 26 3344 4454
Learmonth 28 3444 4454
Canberra 29 3354 4454
Hobart 31 3454 4455
Casey(Ant) 43 4544 3665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 AUG :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 96 (Minor storm)
Hobart 132 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 52
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 2342 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 25 Active to minor storm
23 Aug 25 Active to minor storm
24 Aug 22 Mostly active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 21 August
and is current for interval 21-23 August. A rise in geomagnetic
activity to minor storm, with some stations recording isolated
major storm periods, today was due to a slightly earlier than
expected start of the predicted coronal hole effect. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced to 'active
to minor storm' levels during the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may be expected at mid and high
latitudes during the next two days. Minor degradations are also
possible at low latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
23 Aug 58 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
24 Aug 62 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
21 August and is current for interval 21-23 August. Minor
to mild depressions are possible in Southern Australian/NZ
reagions during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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