[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 16 08:14:41 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was at at steady 550km/sec the first
half of teh UT day, before increasing to 600km/sec for the second
half of the UT day. This suggests that we have entered another
coronal hole wind stream. 27 day recurrence indicates that moderately
elevated wind speed conditions are likely for the next two days,
declining on the second day. The north-south component of the
IMF appears to be remaining northward with this wind stream reducing
geoeffectiveness. Solar region 431, now just west of the solar
central meridian, has only produced C class (minor) flare activity
over the past 24 hours. However, this region still has the chance
of producing a significant solar flare. If it did so, given its
present location, it would be very geoeffective. A new solar
region is visible behind the north-east limb on SOHO EIT imagery.
This may be the return of old solar region 422 (latitude of 15
North), which produced an isolated M2 class flare on its last
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 2232 2222
Darwin 8 2232 2222
Townsville 6 2222 2122
Learmonth 8 2232 2221
Canberra 7 1-32 2222
Hobart 8 1232 2321
Casey(Ant) 13 3442 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 3442 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 15 Unsettled, chance for isolated active periods.
17 Aug 15 Unsettled, chance for isolated active periods.
18 Aug 9 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next two days due to
weak coronal hole wind stream effects. Effects are expected to
be weak due to Bz remaining northward after the Eart entered
the stream in the past 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradations may be experienced at high latitudes
over next two two. Other regions expected to have good HF conditions,
with the chance for higher than normal MUFs in some regions,
particularly mid to low latitudes. Isolated short wave fadeouts
on daylight HF circuits possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced 30% early in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 80 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
17 Aug 80 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug 80 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 13 August
and is current for interval 14-16 August (SWFs) . Mostly normal
conditions with slight depressions possible afte local dawn for
the next few days. Higher than normal MUFs may be usable at mid
to low latitudes. SWF's possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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