[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream presently impacting 
the Earth has continued to produce mildly elevated wind speeds. 
Solar region 431 has the chance of producing significant flare 
activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3332 2332
      Darwin              11   3332 2322
      Townsville          11   3232 2332
      Learmonth           11   3232 2333
      Canberra            12   3342 1232
      Hobart              12   3342 1232
      Casey(Ant)          15   4432 22-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 AUG : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            93   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              86   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   3532 3243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
16 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream has continued to 
produce mildly elevated geomagnetic activity resulting in isolated 
active periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels expected for 
the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions with slight depressions possible 
at times for the next few days. SWF's possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
17 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 13 August 
and is current for interval 14-16 August (SWFs) . Mostly normal 
conditions with slight depressions possible at times for the 
next few days. SWF's possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 609 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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