[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 3 08:25:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 116/68
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 800 to 650km/sec over
the UT day. Further decline in solar wind speed expected next
24 hours, as the Earth leaves the recent coronal hole high speed
wind stream. Another coronal hole, an isolated transequatorial
hole, is rotating towards the centre of the solar disk and the
Earth is expected to enter the wind stream from this hole on
around 06 or 07 Aug. Solar region 424 is far south-east solar
quadrant produced several C class events towards the end of the
UT day. Isolated M class activity is possible from this region.
The simpler region reported yesterday to the north of 424 is
apparently considered to be part of region 424. The southern
spots of 424 are most likely source for flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 3343
Darwin 15 3333 2343
Townsville 15 3333 2342
Learmonth 17 3333 2442
Canberra 16 3333 3343
Hobart 16 3333 3343
Casey(Ant) 29 3443 3-64
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 AUG :
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 141 (Severe storm)
Hobart 139 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 37 5555 5335
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 13 Unsettled to Active
04 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity expected to further decline today,
as the Earth leaves the recent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
27 day recurrence suggests geomagnetic conditions should remain
relatively quiet until 06 Aug when the Earth is expected to enter
another coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Improving HF conditions expected over next few days.
Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Blanketing sporadic E observed second half of UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 55 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 65 near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to continue to improve in coming
days for southern Aus/NZ region. Mild deppressions of 10-15%
possible for southern Aus/NZ region after local dawn. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly values.
There is an increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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