[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 2 08:22:14 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
+++ CORRECTED COPY - SOLAR COMMENT AND ANTARCTIC MUF SUMMARY +++
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains fast at 750km/sec due to south
polar extension coronal hole. Elevated wind speed conditions
again expected today, with an overall declining trend. The region
rotating around the south-east limb, mentioned yesterday, has
been numbered region 424 by US SEC. This region produced numerous
C class events during the UT day. Some spots have rotated around
the south east limb and the region does look interesting. However,
another day will be needed for this region to rotate fully onto
the visible disk. Low level M class events are possible. A simpler
region has also rotated onto the solar disk just to the north
of 424. Solar activity at this stage seems to be entirely
dependant on 424 as other currently on disk regions have been
very quiet. Also, another coronal hole is rotating toward solar
central meridian visible in SEC SXI imagery and SHOHO EIT imagery.
This moderately sized isolated trans-equatorial coronal hole is
expected to be geoeffective around 6-8 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 29 4445 5332
Darwin 26 4444 5332
Townsville 26 4445 4332
Learmonth 30 5435 5332
Canberra 29 4445 5332
Hobart 29 4445 5332
Casey(Ant) 38 4534 6453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 AUG :
Townsville 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 64 (Active)
Canberra 167 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 32 4545 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 16 active
03 Aug 13 Unsettled to Active
04 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream effects are continuing longer
than expected. However, a declining trend in activity remains
expected over the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slowly improving conditions expected 02-03 August for
mid to high latitudes. Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts
on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values early in UT day.
Absorption observed second half of UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to improve in coming days for
southern Aus/NZ region. Mild deppressions of 10-15% may again
be experienced for southern Aus/NZ region after local dawn. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly values.
There is an increeasing chance for shortwave fadeouts due to
a possibly active solar region rotating on the solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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