[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 152/107

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 337(N14W53) 
produced  the largest  event of the day, a C4.4 flare at
0436UT. Region 338 also  produced several C-class flares 
before passing the  limb.  The solar wind speed showed a 
gradual decrease from 550 km/s to 400 km/s (approx.) over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained slightly southwards during the first 
half of the UT day. Bz remained slightly northwards during 
the second half of  the UT day.  The current coronal hole 
activity seems to be declining, but one more coronal hole 
is taking geo-effective position. The solar wind may start 
to show strengthening due to this coronal hole from late 
hours on 30 April. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Mostly quiet to 
active with isolated minor storm periods. 

Estimated Indices 28 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2334 2222
      Darwin              10   2333 2222
      Townsville          12   2334 2222
      Learmonth           12   3334 2112
      Canberra            14   2335 2112
      Hobart              16   2435 3112
      Casey(Ant)          11   3323 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart              62   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   3433 3433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
30 Apr    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
01 May    18    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
COMMENT:  The geomagnetic  activity did  not rise  as  per 
expectations as the coronal hole effect remained weaker than 
expected and is now showing signs of decline. The geomagnetic  
activity  may start to rise  again on 30 April (late hours) 
or on 01 May (early hours) due to expected effect of another 
coronal hole. Minor storm periods may be observed on 01 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT:  Mild to moderate  depressions are  possible on 
01 May, especially at high latitudes, due to anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Apr   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    90    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    90    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
01 May    85    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions are possible at times on 
01 May  in the southern  Aus/NZ regions  due to anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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