[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.5/SF 26/2340UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
M1.7/SF    1532UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 154/109

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region 338 
(N18W85) produced an M1.7/1532UT and several C-class 
flares. This region had also produced an M2.5 late on 
26 April (at 2340UT) after the previous day's report was 
issued. This flare was associated to a Type II radio sweep. 
However, no CME was associated with this event. Region 338, 
although just about to pass the limb, is still complex and 
holds potetial for M-class flare. Regions 344(N16W00) and 
337(S14W40) have also growth in complexity and hold potential 
for M-class activity. The solar wind speed showed a gradual 
increase from 430 km/s to 550 km/s (approx.) during the UT 
day, most likely due to the expected coronal hole activity. 
The solar wind stream may remain strong during the next 2 
days. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field continued to show minor fluctuations between the north and 
south directions almost the whole day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3322 2323
      Darwin              11   3332 2323
      Townsville          10   3322 2322
      Learmonth           11   3322 2333
      Canberra            10   3322 2323
      Hobart              10   3322 2322
      Casey(Ant)          17   4433 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   4242 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr    16    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
29 Apr    14    Mostly unsettled. 
30 Apr    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 26 April 
and is current for interval 26-28 April. The geomagnetic 
activity did not rise as per expectations as the expected 
coronal hole effect remained weaker than expected. However, 
the activity may remain enhanced during the next 2 days due 
to the coronal hole effect. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions are possible over 
the next few days, especially at high latitudes, due to 
anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Apr    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    73    Depressed 5%. 
29 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    82    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 
26 April and is current for interval 26-28 April. Mild 
depressions are possible at times over the next two days 
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    88300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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