[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      24   3345 4344
      Darwin              18   3344 3334
      Townsville          23   3345 4333
      Learmonth           26   3345 4444
      Canberra            26   3345 4444
      Hobart              24   3345 4344
      Casey(Ant)          26   4544 334-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 APR : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           127   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             153   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             22   4445 4223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr    18    active 
18 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
19 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 14 April and 
is current for interval 15-17 April. Solar wind speed increased 
to around 750 km/s over the first half of the UT day and remains 
elevated at about 700 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole. 
Active to minor storm conditions are expected to continue for 
at least the next 24 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next two days at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr    80    near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 14 April 
and is current for interval 16-17 April. Brief ionospheric depression 
observed overnight at low latitudes. Extensive spread-F conditions 
observed S Aus/NZ regions. Periods of spread-F and high absorption 
observed at high latitudes in response to coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic disturbance. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced 
today S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 570 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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