[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 11 09:25:33 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/1F 09/2329UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: US ACE solar wind speed data shows a gradual increase
in solar wind over past 24 hours due to a coronal hole. Solar
wind speed increased from around 500 to 700km/sec, and the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated southward to -10nT at times. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated for an extended period, perhaps
to 19 Apr due to this lare coronal hole. A weak Type II sweep
was observerd on the Culgoora Spectrograph at 2340UT on 09 Apr,
in association with the M2 event. Culgoora H-alpha was clouded
out but US Big Bear website region tool shows it was solar
region 331 on the far southwest limb (low geoeffectiveness).
Also, a new solar region has rotated onto the solar disk on the
east limb just south of solar equator. This appears to be a new
solar region, as no previously active solar regions were due
for return. This new region may produce low level M class activity
if it shows development.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 20 3434 3343
Darwin 20 3434 3343
Townsville 16 3334 3333
Learmonth 18 3334 3343
Canberra 18 3334 3343
Hobart 18 3343 3343
Casey(Ant) 24 4534 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 94 (Minor storm)
Hobart 103 (Major storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 25 4354 5332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 20 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
12 Apr 18 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
13 Apr 17 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 April and
is current for interval 10-12 April. A broad period of elevated
geomagnetic activity (mostly active levels) is expected from
10-14Apr due to a high speed wind stream from a broad equatorial
coronal hole. This large coronal hole appears "U" shaped and
a second period of activity is expected 16-19 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to continue degraded
at mid to high latitudes over coming days due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 80 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 80 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 8 April
and is current for interval 11-12 April. A general period of
mild to moderate degradation is expected for southern Aus/NZ
region HF comms over the coming week. Low latitude (Norther Aus/Equatorial
regions) are not expected to be impacted by coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity. Southern Aus/NZ region may expecerience
local night degradation and brief depressions after local dawn.
Christchurch and Hobart MUFs were depressed 15% after local dawn
this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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