[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 10 09:14:22 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: A large "U" shaped coronal hole is visible in SOHO EIT284
imagery. The leading branch of this coronal hole has now passed
solar central meridian and ACE solar wind speed data shows an
increasing trend after 17UT on 09 Apr. An increase in solar wind
speed is expected from Apr10/11 as the Earth enters the high
speed wind stream from this coronal hole. Solar wind speed is
generally expected to remain elevated (recurrence suggests around
600km/sec) until 19Apr. Solar regions have been mostly quiet
over past 24 hours.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
09/0325UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 22 3443 5323
Darwin 18 3433 4333
Townsville 22 3443 5323
Learmonth 19 2433 5323
Canberra 21 3343 5333
Hobart 22 3443 5322
Casey(Ant) 19 3443 4322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20 2345 4423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 22 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
11 Apr 20 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
12 Apr 18 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 April and
is current for interval 10-12 April. A broad period of elevated
geomagnetic activity (mostly active levels) is expected from
10-14Apr due to a high speed wind stream from a broad equatorial
coronal hole. This large coronal hole appears "U" shaped and
a second period of activity is expected 16-19 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions ared expected to become degraded at
mid to high latitudes over coming days as the Earth enters a
high speed wind stream from a solar coronal hole. A broad period
of midl to moderate degradation can be expected after we enter
the high speed stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 85 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
11 Apr 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 70 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 8 April
and is current for interval 11-12 April. A general period of
mild to moderate degradation is expected for southern Aus/NZ
region HF comms over the coming week. Low latitude (Norther Aus/Equatorial
regions) are not expected to be impacted by coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity. Southern Aus/NZ region may expecerience
local night degradation and brief depressions after local dawn.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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