[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. One C2.6 flare 
was observed from region 324(S13W85) at 0304UT. The solar 
wind speed showed a gradual decrease during the first five
hours of the UT day from 390 to 360 km/s approximately and 
then remained between 360 and 380 km/s (approx) during the 
rest  of  the day.  The  north-south  component  of  the 
inter-planetary magnetic field remained slightly but mostly 
positive throughout the UT day. Weak shock, due to the CME 
activity observed on 04 April, may arrive any time now and 
may strengthen the solar wind stream. A returning coronal 
hole is expected to start showing its effect late 09 April 
or early 10 April. Regions 324 is decaying but still holds 
potential for C-class flares or an islated M-class  flare. 
Regions 325(N15W63) and 330(N07E38) also seem to be capable 
of producing C-class flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1112 3212
      Darwin               4   1112 2212
      Townsville           4   1102 2213
      Learmonth            5   1002 3211
      Canberra             7   1312 3202
      Hobart               5   1112 3201
      Casey(Ant)           6   2221 3112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   3322 2331     

 

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr    15    Quiet to unsettled with possibility of active 
                periods. 
09 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Apr    22    Unsettled to active with possibility of isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: The slight possibility of arrival of shock on 
08 April due to the CME activity observed on 04 April, 
may cause a rise in the geomagnetic activity to 'unsettled' 
or even 'isolated active periods'. The geomagnetic activity 
is expected to slow down on 09 April after this CME effect 
subsides. However, the geomagnetic activity may again rise 
to 'unsettled to active' or even 'isolated minor storm level' 
on 10 April  due to  the expected effect of a returning 
coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild/moderate degradations 
in HF conditions may be observed on 08 and 10 April on 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Apr   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with
      periods of slight enhancements and
      minror to mild depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    92    near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    96    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed 
in southern Aus/NZ region on 08 and 10 April. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    74400 K  
Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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