[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 126/79

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54
COMMENT:  The solar  activity was low today.  Two C-class 
flares were observed from region 324(S12W74)- the largest 
being a C5 flare at 1928UT. The solar wind speed showed a 
gradual decrease from 550 to 400 km/s (approx) during the 
UT day. The fluctuations in the north-south  component of 
the inter-planetary magnetic field have nearly diminished 
and it remained slightly, but mostly, positive throughout 
the UT day. Weak shock may arrive  early 07 April  due to 
the partial halo CMEs observed on 04 April. Region 324 is 
decaying but still holds potential  for C-class flares or 
isolated M-flare. Regions 325(N13W48) and 330(N07E38) may 
also produce C-class flares. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 1322
      Darwin               5   2221 1222
      Townsville           4   2221 0211
      Learmonth            6   2211 1321
      Canberra             6   2212 0311
      Hobart               6   2212 0311
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 2323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            85   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23   5433 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
08 Apr    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
09 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity slowed  down due to a 
significant weakening in the solar wind  stream and due 
to the fact that Bz remained slightly  positive for most 
of the UT day today. However, the slight  possibility of 
arrival of  shock on  07 April due to  the CME  activity 
observed on 04 April , may cause a rise in the geomagnetic 
activity to 'unsettled' or even 'isolated active periods'. 
The geomagnetic  activity is expected  to slow down again 
after this CME effect subsides. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild degradations in HF conditions 
may be observed during the next two days on high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Apr    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    92    near predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    92    near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    95    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed 
in southern Aus/NZregion during the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  
Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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