[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0320UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 162/116

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate         Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. Region 
162 (N25W73) produced an M1 flare/0319UT, a C9.7/1634UT 
and several smaller C-class flares. This region is still 
the largest region on the disk and holds potential for 
M class flare. Region 173(S18W83) and new region 175
(N15E58) also produced several C-class flares, which 
includes a C8/1530UT from region 175. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained 
mildly southward for most of the UT day 29 October. 
Fluctuations in Bz have reduced now and it seems to be 
setteling around the normal value.The solar wind speed 
is also showing clear signs of a decline in the coronal 
hole activity. The solar wind speed has gradually decreased 
from 600 km/s to 450 km/s (approx) over the UT day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3233 3223
      Darwin              10   3223 3223
      Townsville          12   2234 3223
      Learmonth           10   3223 3223
      Canberra            10   2233 3222
      Hobart              11   3233 3222
      Casey(Ant)          16   --44 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           144   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             116   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             17   4433 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
31 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity has been 'quiet to 
unsetteled' on 29 October at most locations. However, 
active to minor storm levels were also recorded for short 
time intervals in the polar regions. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to gradually subside during the next 
3 days as the coronal hole effect subsides. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and minor degradations in 
HF conditions may be observed for isolated periods on high 
latitudes on 30 Oct/UTday. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of minor depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct   112    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 
                10%. 
31 Oct   117    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Nov   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in 
most Australian regions on 30 Oct/UT day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 615 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  
Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060