[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 29 10:46:03 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1N 1205UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. Region
162 (N25W59) produced an M1.6 flare/1205UT and several
C-class flares. This region is still the largest region
on the disk and holds potential for M class flare. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained mostly southward during the UT day 28
October. The solar wind speed increased from 580km/s
to 680 km/s (approx) in the early hours, but came
down to 580km/s (approx) by the late hours of the day.
The coronal hole activity is still in progress, but
seems to be declining now. A Type II radio sweep was
observed at 2303/27 Oct. This was associated with a
CME on the north-east limb. It is not expected to be
geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 4332 3233
Darwin 13 4332 3223
Townsville 14 4332 3233
Learmonth 11 3332 3223
Canberra 17 4432 3333
Hobart 14 3432 3233
Casey(Ant) 20 --53 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 OCT :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 136 (Severe storm)
Hobart 110 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 22 2443 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 12 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
30 Oct 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
31 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 24 October
and is current for interval 24-29 October. The geomagnetic
activity has been 'quiet to active' on 28 October at most
locations. However, minor to major storm level was also
recorded for short time intervals in the polar regions.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually subside
during the next 3 days as the coronal hole effect weakens
further.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be experienced on high latitudes on 29 Oct/UTday.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 94
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 108 Depressed 5% to enhanced 10%.
30 Oct 112 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 115 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs may be observed in
Southern Australian regions on 29 Oct/UTday.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 144000 K
Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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