[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 18 09:40:09 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: Solar wind moderately elevated at 550km/sec (looks 
like a weak coronal hole signature), now appears to have peaked 
and is generally expected to continue to decline today. 
However ACE EPAM precursor data shows an increasing flux trend and 
a weak shock may arrive over next 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4322 3322
      Darwin              14   4322 3---
      Townsville          11   3322 3---
      Learmonth           13   4322 3322
      Canberra            12   3331 3---
      Hobart              12   3331 3---
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--- 3---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              67   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   3212 3453     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
19 Oct    12    Unsettled 
20 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak impulse in the geomagnetic field may occur today. 
Active periods may follow impulse. Also, mild coronal
hole induced activity possbile on 18 Oct.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Oct   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Oct   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression observed after local dawn at some southern 
Aus sites. This depression is not expected to persist. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background:  NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 553 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   250000 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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