[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: Impulsive C-class flares were observed around 03 and 
04UT. These produced mass ejections directed to the northwest 
and southeast which will probably not be geoeffective. A long 
duration C6.5 event occurred at 1550UT. This has not been optically 
correlated and geoeffective status is unknown. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3222 2343
      Darwin              12   3222 234-
      Townsville           9   2123 2333
      Learmonth           11   3122 2343
      Canberra            12   3222 2343
      Hobart              12   3222 2343
      Casey(Ant)          15   ---- 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   3324 3442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
18 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
19 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes 
in association with strong fluctuations in IMF Bz. A brief disturbance 
from 1730-2030UT was suggestive of a weak shock passage. With 
IMF Bz fluctuations continuing and solar wind speed moderately 
elevated, similar conditions are expected today. Possible weak 
shock arrival late in the UT day. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Poor-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed after local dawn Southern 
Australian region. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20-30% after local dawn, persisting into
      local day in S. Aust region.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Isolated depressions, otherwise near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct   100    near predicted monthly values 
18 Oct   100    near predicted monthly values 
19 Oct   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 16 October 
and is current for interval 16-17 October. Expect depressions 
of 20-30% after local dawn today S. Aust. region, persisting 
for some hours. A possible CME induced shock may arrive late 
in the UT day Oct 16. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   410000 K  Bz:   9 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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