[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/SF    0010UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 181/134


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels on Oct 14. A 
long duration M2.2 event occurred around 00UT, originating from 
Region 159 near the east limb of the visible disk. While not 
in a particularly geoeffective location, there is a possibility 
of a glancing blow from any associated CME. Culgoora radiospectrograph 
reported a possible high-velocity Type II radio sweep in assocition 
with this event. A second Type II radio sweep of unknown origin 
was reported at 1430UT. A long duration enhancement in X-ray 
flux commenced shortly thereafter and is still in progress but 
declining at report issue. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2233 4333
      Darwin              13   2223 4332
      Townsville          17   2233 5333
      Learmonth           16   -223 5322
      Canberra            14   2233 4333
      Hobart              16   2243 4333
      Casey(Ant)          12   2323 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2333 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct    16    active 
16 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes 
prior to 15UT in association with southward IMF Bz and steadily 
increasing solar wind speed. IMF Bz moved northward for the second 
half of the UT day, but is still subject to some fluctuations, 
resulting in possible active periods today. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressions observed mid to high latitudes after local 
dawn today. Isolated depressions possible at high latitudes today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Oct   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% over UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 10-20% during first half UT day.
      Slightly below predicted monthly values second half UT
      day.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Isolated depressions of 10-30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Oct   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Oct   135    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated depressions possible at high latitudes with 
associated geomagnetic activity. A possible CME induced shock 
may arrive late in the UT day Oct 16. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 304 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    33700 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060