[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was generally low. A C4 event with associated 
Type II/IV radio sweep was reported at about 1750UT. LASCO imagery 
is not available for analysis of any associated CME from the 
event, but possible shock arrival time would be late UT day Oct 
16 to early Oct 17. Proton flux was mildly elevated for a short 
time after 00UT but returned to previous levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 2112
      Darwin               4   2211 1112
      Townsville           4   2111 2123
      Learmonth            2   1010 1113
      Canberra             3   1011 2112
      Hobart               4   1112 2112
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   2324 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has remained moderately southward. Unsettled to active 
periods may be experienced today at high latitudes due to sustained 
southward IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were generally good. Isolated depressions 
observed at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Oct   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Oct   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated depressions possible at high latitudes with 
associated geomagnetic activity. A possible CME induced shock 
may arrive late in the UT day Oct 16. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    30600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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