[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            185/138
COMMENT: Observed solar activity has been low, with only minor 
C-class flares observed over the past three days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   1343 3212
      Townsville          13   1344 3212
      Learmonth           13   2333 3--3
      Canberra            13   1344 3212
      Hobart              13   1344 -211
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             22   2455 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct    16    active 
12 Oct    12    Unsettled 
13 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has remained moderately southward. Solar wind speed has 
continued to decline over the UT day. Unsettled to active periods 
may be experienced today due to sustained southward IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressions of 20-30% were observed in southern Australian/New 
Zealand regions over the first half of the UT day Oct 10. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Oct   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30% first half of the UT day.
      Near predicted monthly values later. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 10-30% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Oct   130    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
13 Oct   130    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% may be observed at times mid to 
high latitudes on Oct 11. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    61000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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