[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: Observed solar activity has been low. A CME was observed 
in LASCO imagery, associated with a C-class flare from region 
140 at around 0630UT. The mass ejection appeared to be mainly 
north-directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   1233 2332
      Townsville          13   1234 -332
      Learmonth            9   2232 ----
      Canberra            15   0234 3432
      Hobart              17   1244 -432
      Casey(Ant)          12   3433 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             34   4645 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct    16    active 
11 Oct    12    Unsettled 
12 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has remained moderately southward since around 04UT. Solar 
wind speed has continued to decline over the UT day. Unsettled 
to active periods may be experienced today due to sustained southward 
IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 5-15% at times, otherwise near predicted 
      monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct   130    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
11 Oct   130    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
12 Oct   140    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions may be observed at times mid to high 
latitudes for Oct 10. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 486 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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