[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/SF    1454UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 185/138


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: One impulsive M-class and several C-class flares were 
observed over the past 24 hours. Regions 191, 192 and 198 all 
have the chance of producing flare activity. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
17/0940UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3321 1222
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           7   3221 1223
      Learmonth            8   3321 1222
      Canberra             8   3321 1222
      Hobart               8   3321 1222
      Casey(Ant)          12   4--- 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 NOV : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   3212 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate recent coronal hole induced 
effects are declining. Active to minor storm periods observed 
at high latitudes early in the UT day are possibly due to shock 
arrival from the solar flare reported on Nov 14. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   145    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Nov   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Nov   140    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Solar wind 
parameters indicate recent coronal hole induced disturbance is 
declining. Elevated proton flux levels may result in increased 
absorption at high latitudes . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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