[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 199/151


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            185/138
COMMENT: Solar regions, 191, 192 and 195 all have the chance 
of producing flare activity. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3212 1123
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           5   3212 1112
      Learmonth            5   3111 1123
      Canberra             5   3211 1123
      Hobart               5   3211 2113
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---3 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov    20    active 
18 Nov    20    active 
19 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for interval 15-17 November. Mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity is expected for 17-18 November due to a geoeffectively 
positioned coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 17-18 November for mid-high latitudes in response to anticipated 
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all
stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   115    Enhanced to depressed 10-20% at times. 
18 Nov   115    Depressed 10-20% at times to enhanced. 
19 Nov   130    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 15 November 
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Slightly 
degraded HF conditions are possible at times for 17-18 November 
for mid-high latitudes in response to anticipated mildly elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060