[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: The interplanetary magnetic field was again mildly southward 
(-5nT) for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed continues to 
be moderately elevated at 540km/sec, in association with an equatorial 
coronal hole, now in the western solar hemisphere. Solar region 
177 produced some mid to high C class events, in particular a 
C9.5 at 2201UT with slow xray flux decline but no radio sweep, and 
region 180 produced isolated low level C class events. M class activity 
remains possible from region 177 today. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3344 4334
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          15   3333 3333
      Learmonth           20   3335 4324
      Canberra            20   3344 4334
      Hobart              20   3344 4334
      Casey(Ant)          24   4-54 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 NOV : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             21   4444 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity is expected to decline 
today with isolated active periods expected. Field is then expected 
to become quiet. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Gradually improving HF conditions expected. High latitudes 
may experience degradations today then improving. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Nov   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Nov   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally improving HF conditions exoected. Isolated 
fadeouts possible. Minor afeout observed 22UT in association 
with minor C9 flare. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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