[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: The interplanetary magnetic field was again mildly southward 
(-5nT) for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed continues to 
be moderately elevated at 520km/sec, in association with an equatorial 
coronal hole, now in the western solar hemisphere. Solar regions 
177 and 180 appear to have M class flare potential, and activity 
on the Culgoora spectrograph appears to have increased this morning. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3334
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          15   2333 4334
      Learmonth           15   3233 3434
      Canberra            13   2333 3334
      Hobart              13   2333 3334
      Casey(Ant)          19   4443 2334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              72   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             27   4444 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    18    active 
06 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity is now expected to extend 
to 05 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed 04 Nov at mid to high 
latitudes. A milder degradation is expected for today, with gradually 
improving conditions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Nov   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Nov   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed yesterday in southern Aus/NZ 
region. A mildler depression in MUF levels for southern region 
is again expected early today, then improving. There is an increasing 
chance for fadeouts. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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