[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 165/119


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: The interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward 
for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed was moderately elevated, 
and is expected to increase in speed over the next few days due 
to an equatorial solar coronal hole. Along duration C3 event 
at 06UT was associated with a mass ejection, but ejection appears 
non earth directed. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3343 4333
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          15   2333 4334
      Learmonth           13   3233 3333
      Canberra            16   3333 4334
      Hobart              18   3343 4333
      Casey(Ant)          22   --53 4232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 NOV : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   2323 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov    16    Unsettled to active 
04 Nov    25    Active to minor storm 
05 Nov    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 3-4 November. Coronal hole induced 
activity is expected 03-04 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected 03-04 Nov at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov   173

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   130    enhanced 15 to 30%, northern Aus region.
03 Nov    70    depressed 10 to 20% , southern Aus/NZ region.
04 Nov   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Nov   130    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Hugely enhanced conditions observed at northern region 
sites, and some southern region sites from 04-20UT. Some southern 
region sites have now become depressed after local dawn following 
mild overnight geomagnetic activity. Degradation expected southern 
Aus/NZ region 03-04 Nov. Northern Aus region MUFs are currently
enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    80800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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