[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: Solar region 162 has departed the solar disk. Still 
maintaining watch on east limb around the solar equator for any 
signs of an active region, after yesterdays simultaneous flare 
in EIT with the X1 xray event. Solar proton flux levels are mildly 
enhanced 1 proton flux unit at the 10MeV energy level. A isolated 
equatorial coronal hole is now at the centre of the solar disk 
(visible in SOHO EIT 284 imagey). Solar region 177 in the north-east 
solar quadrant has shown rapid growth overnight. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           6   2122 2223
      Learmonth            5   2122 1222
      Canberra             7   2222 2222
      Hobart               6   2222 2211
      Casey(Ant)          16   4-43 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 NOV : 
      Townsville          31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18   4333 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov    12    Unsettled 
03 Nov    16    Unsettled to active 
04 Nov    25    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 3-4 November. Coronal hole induced 
activity is expected 03-04 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event. However flux levels mildly elevated.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected 03-04 Nov at high latitudes. 
Polar regions may experience increased absorption due to mild elevation
in proton flux levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Nov   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Degradation expected southern Aus/NZ region 03-04 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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