[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 25 09:54:17 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0646UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 189/142
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: The solar activity has been moderate during the last
24 hours. An M1.1 X-ray flare was observed from region 9963.
This flare peaked at 0646UT/24May. A TypeII radio sweep, observed
at 0322UT/24May,could not be co-related to any other event. Region
9957 (N11W32) is decaying. The solar wind stream due to the coronal
hole effect is expected to continue to affect the geo-magnetic
activity. The >10MeV proton event, that started on 22May, has
ended at 1400/24May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 1 1110 0002
Darwin 0 1100 0002
Townsville 1 2-10 0001
Learmonth 0 1000 0003
Canberra 0 0000 0003
Hobart 1 1120 0002
Casey(Ant) 7 2-32 122-
Davis(Ant) 6 3320 1112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAY :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 52
Planetary 54 3325 7753
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possibility of
active periods.
26 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
27 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 21 May and
is current for interval 24-25 May. The recently observed CMEs
have now passed. The solar wind speed has declined from approximately
900km/s to nealy 500km/s over the last 24 hours. Bz is showing
minor fluctuations. The coronal hole effect is expected to continue
to affect the geo-magnetic activity on the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : Began at 1820UT 22/05, Ended at 1400UT 24/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressions of upto nearly 30% were observed in MUFs
probably due the effect of the solar wind stream from the coronal
hole on almost all locations in the forenoon on 24 May. The coronal
hole activity is expected to slowly decline over the next 2 to
3 days. Also the >10MeV proton event has ended at 1400UT/24May.The
HF conditions are expected to remain nearly normal during most
of this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
24 May 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 135 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto
10%.
26 May 140 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 May 140 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 21 May
and is current for interval 24-25 May. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on 25 and 26 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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