[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 24 09:58:35 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 180/133
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1015UT on 23
May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 44 3336 6644
Darwin 46 3436 6645
Townsville 47 3336 66--
Learmonth 44 3336 6645
Canberra 34 2325 56--
Hobart 28 2325 55--
Casey(Ant) 52 3446 754-
Davis(Ant) 58 3347 7543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAY :
Darwin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 45
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 2234 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 25 Mostly active. Minor storm level possible.
25 May 16 Mostly unsettled to active.
26 May 12 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 21 May and
is current for interval 24-25 May. The CME observed on 22May
arrived earlier than expected. A strong shock was recorded at
1015UT/23May followed by a sudden impulse of 36nT at 1051UT/23May.
The solar wind speed increased from nearly 400 km/s to above
600 km/s on the arrival of this shock. Another shock, most likely
caused by the CME observed on 21May, was observed around 1500UT/23May
followed by another sudden impulse of 56nT at 1544UT/23May. This
raised the solar wind speed to above 900km/s for a short period.
Bz went southward and major storm was recorded. Since solar wind
stream is expected to follow these CMEs due to the coronal hole
activity, mostly active to minor storm levels are expected for
the geomagnetic activity on 24May. This is expected to gradually
come down to unsettled level by 26May.
A weak (36nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1051UT on 23 May, and a moderate (56nT) impulse was observed
at 1544UT on 23 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 05 2002 1820UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
25 May Normal Normal Fair
26 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Due to the geomagnetic storm caused by an early arrival
of the CME observed on 22May, a degradation in frequencies was
observed after around 1400UT/23May on most low and mid latitude
locations. It was hard to conclude about this trend at the high
latitude locations due to fluctuations in the curves and due
to the proton event going on at the moment. The proton event
is expected to die out early 24 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
23 May 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 120 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 May 130 near predicted monthly values
26 May 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 21 May
and is current for interval 24-25 May. Mild degradation in HF
conditions expected on 24 May. HF conditions are expected to
show recovery on 25 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 76000 K Bz: -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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